YTD 5-0, +20 units on eliminations so far.
Monique and Joey should be the bottom 2, as they have both been at the bottom already, and Mario and Emmitt are clearly at the top, never having been in the bottom 2. Monique has been in the bottom 2 twice so far, and Joey only once. Monique hit the bottom 2 as early as the top 8 show, while Joey only got it for the weird non-elimination show.
Joey regularly gets higher average judges' scores, and has beaten Monique 4-1 in their last 5 dances, 7-3 overall. The combined scores were close last night though, so it should come down to fanbase voting.
Joey generally seems to have a larger fanbase, as the season started with a "Mario vs. Joey" feel, since they were the top 2 dancers at the start of the season. Mario has retained the title of favorite, and Emmitt has come on strong with the judges and popularity, so Joey has slipped some but still has a good base. Monique started with just the younger teen base, and has grown it some, but has been just getting by imo.
Also, with Halloween last night, a significant portion of her teen fanbase will have been out trick-or-treating and partying, so she should get even fewer votes than normal. Most pudits/bloggers/articles predict her to go, and an informal survey of forums shows fewer fans voting for her, and that most fans think she will go as well.
So I'm comfortable betting on Monique to leave, not quite as comfortable as with Jerry leaving last week, as there is still a small chance she gets by, but I still think she gets the boot. Only nervousness is that I've gone a perfect 5-0 on these, and am bound to slip up sometime. Have won a fair amount on this show though, so am willing to put a decent amount behind it. Took some Monique earlier under -300, but didn't have time to post before rushing for work. In the high -300's now, will probably see the line climb to the -500's, wouldn't bet past -600.
Position:
Win 3 units on Monique leaving, lose 7 units otherwise.
Monique and Joey should be the bottom 2, as they have both been at the bottom already, and Mario and Emmitt are clearly at the top, never having been in the bottom 2. Monique has been in the bottom 2 twice so far, and Joey only once. Monique hit the bottom 2 as early as the top 8 show, while Joey only got it for the weird non-elimination show.
Joey regularly gets higher average judges' scores, and has beaten Monique 4-1 in their last 5 dances, 7-3 overall. The combined scores were close last night though, so it should come down to fanbase voting.
Joey generally seems to have a larger fanbase, as the season started with a "Mario vs. Joey" feel, since they were the top 2 dancers at the start of the season. Mario has retained the title of favorite, and Emmitt has come on strong with the judges and popularity, so Joey has slipped some but still has a good base. Monique started with just the younger teen base, and has grown it some, but has been just getting by imo.
Also, with Halloween last night, a significant portion of her teen fanbase will have been out trick-or-treating and partying, so she should get even fewer votes than normal. Most pudits/bloggers/articles predict her to go, and an informal survey of forums shows fewer fans voting for her, and that most fans think she will go as well.
So I'm comfortable betting on Monique to leave, not quite as comfortable as with Jerry leaving last week, as there is still a small chance she gets by, but I still think she gets the boot. Only nervousness is that I've gone a perfect 5-0 on these, and am bound to slip up sometime. Have won a fair amount on this show though, so am willing to put a decent amount behind it. Took some Monique earlier under -300, but didn't have time to post before rushing for work. In the high -300's now, will probably see the line climb to the -500's, wouldn't bet past -600.
Position:
Win 3 units on Monique leaving, lose 7 units otherwise.
